Editorial

Where's the Jam?

My apologies for the continuing limited updates to this site - something which is unlikely to change in foreseeable future due to the demands of a young family and other priorities which pay the bills.

Anyway...

Ever since I set up this up this site in 1997, its articles, comments and editorials have usually been over shadowed by forthcoming defence cuts, starting with the Strategic Defence Review in 1998.  At  that time my criticism of an immediate 10% cut in the size of the RN was muted by the apparently compensatory  promises of "jam" in the form of orders for  new carriers, destroyers, nuclear submarines ....  Sadly further rounds of cuts have followed, and the RN is now 25-30% smaller than it was eight years ago, but very few of those promises have been delivered on.

Even more worryingly, hints of yet more cuts seem to be drifting out the MOD.  There's apparently not enough money in the equipment programme for the seventh and eight Type 45 destroyers ("up to 12" were originally promised), uncertainty and delay still surrounds the order for further Astute-class submarines that are desperately needed by industry, the order for Future Lynx is being repeatedly deferred, the CVF carrier project again faces its annual battle to pass Main Gate (a unique Part 2 approval this year!), and so on.  As usual the RN is apparently being tempted to save the doubtful orders by offering to pay-off a frigate here, an SSN there, maybe a few MCMVs ... thus saving the MOD £50 million or £100 million in annual running costs and generating a little extra cash from sales to foreign navies.  But bitter experience has shown that in practice this money will be quickly diverted by the MOD to meet other apparently more urgent requirements.  I personally suspect that at least one of the new "CVF" aircraft carriers will be ordered, but what about the associated escorts, supply ships, strike fighters, airborne early warning aircraft - will they ever come to exist in the appropriate numbers and/or with the appropriate capabilities?  I fear not.

The RN now has, once again, a new First Sea Lord - Admiral Sir Jonathon Band.  While he should undoubtedly be congratulated for reaching the summit of his profession, it must also be remembered that a First Sea Lord lasts just two or at the most three years - and thus an effective and dynamic 1SL can often be outlasted by civil servants and even politicians who don't agree with his agenda and plans.  It can only be hoped Admiral Band is more successful than his predecessors in the apparently almost impossible task of convincing his political masters, the Treasury, and the heads of the other services of the importance of  a modern and capable Royal Navy - a navy which is not only nearly large enough to meet the challenges of today without massive allied support, but also has some small margin for the unknowns of tomorrow given that even an emergency shipbuilding programme would take 5 years to start delivering any results.  Of course if the planning assumption is that we can always rely on the USA or even France to provide sufficient naval assets and active military support to protect the UK's national interests and commitments as permanent member of the UN Security Council, then the continuing decline of the RN to a just few patrol vessels in 20 or 30 years time seems inevitable.  Perhaps in 2020, India, China and Brazil will be considering a MOD offer to sell a 5 year old aircraft carrier that cost UK tax payers £2 billion for a fifth of that.

Update 17/6/2006.  A report by Robert Fox in the Evening Standard of 12 June 2006, stated:

Under next year's Comprehensive Spending Review, the Treasury has warned that the defence budget will have to be cut, threatening a number of major projects including plans to build two aircraft carriers.

Chancellor Gordon Brown also wants £1bn taken from defence and given to the budget for homeland security, according to Whitehall officials.

'It is a major defence review and cut under any other name" said a senior official of next year's spending plans, which have already completed their first stage.

.... Ahead of the spending review to April 2008, defence chiefs have already been told that 'at least one major procurement programme has to go'. The most obvious candidate, say several senior officers, is the plan to build two 60,000-tonne aircraft carriers, due to be commissioned in 2012 and 2015.

... Labour's blueprint for defence and foreign policy in the Strategic Defence Review of 1998 first introduced the plan to build the aircraft carriers as a vital tool for overseas operations. The programme was due to go to final construction contract in October but this will almost certainly be postponed.

It seems a fair guess that the "senior officers" referred are RAF or perhaps Army.  Incidentally, the newly appointed (28 April 2006) professional head of the UK Armed Forces and the principal military adviser to the Secretary of State for Defence and the Government is Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup GCB AFC ADC DSc FRAeS FCMI RAF.

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